Today’s Irish Independent/Millward Brown IMS poll shows that Irish politics has reached a new stable balance of support, with Fine Gael consistently around 30%, Fianna Fáil hitting a floor in the mid-20s and Labour also holding in the lower 20s. Whether these figures would be realised if there was an election is hard to say (though the 86% disapproval rating for the Government might make it a possibility sooner rather than later).
The early swing away from FF definitely benefited Fine Gael. The most recent drops have gone to Labour and follow the disastrous way that Messrs Lenihan and Cowen have handled the public service. However, the Labour support may be harder to retain come polling day.
Their rise is down to two main factors: Eamonn Gilmore is a strong communicator who can empathise with the ordinary citizen; and secondly Labour are offering to solve everyone’s problems.
The Gilmore-glow is a potent political weapon, and it will I am sure draw people to Labour in a way not seen since the Spring tide in 1992 (a Gilmore Gale anyone?) However, his obvious natural ability is being inflated further by a thoroughly uncritical media (cf. Enda Kenny) and a Government who lack precisely those traits he possesses in such abundance: clarity and humanity. Whether this could be sustained when the media turns, or the FF spin machine finds its gear is hard to gauge.
The second part of Labour’s success derives from it’s ability to win the ‘I-told-you-so’ competition. Labour have painted their opposition to the bank guarantee as a moment when they stood up to the establishment. The truth is that they appeared to be on board until close to the vote, and switched when it was clear that the scheme would pass and their act of defiance wouldn’t have any real cost to the public. I think the decision had a lot more to do with simple opportunism than a lofty view of the evils of the banks. In retrospect, the banks have lost all confidence and a deft exercise in revisionism has allowed Labour to claim they knew this all along.
The combination of ‘I-told-you-so’ and an unconditional willingness to give in, make Labour a very Irish version of the ‘Mommy Problem’.
How long can this line of attack reap benefits? I think Labour are probably approaching the ceiling, and without some concrete, costed and realistic policies they may find the tide going out again. Fine Gael have on the other hand produced lots of alternatives, and during the heat of an election, that will count firmly in their favour.
February 28, 2009 at 6:12 pm
The internet plays a role albeit mostly marginal in promoting FG. There are a dozen or more blogs by LB politicians. It would be good if some FG politicians had blogs. FG are from my experience of the party in Dublin mostly a party of the professional class and for that reason it is hard for a lot of average people to relate to us and “get” our policies and general dedication. It would be good if there were more FG members, particularly politicians, happy to demonstrate what they believe in on a personal and political basis on the net.
March 2, 2009 at 7:56 pm
Incidently – the ‘Mommy Problem’ is a US way of describing why people vote Democrat. When Americans want to be taken care of and told everything is ok, they vote Democrat (Mommy). When the want someone to defend them against enemies home and abroad, along with a bit of (fiscal) discipline, they vote Republican (Daddy).