As an FG supporter, today’s poll results are frustrating. Many new governments enjoy a ‘honeymoon’ period after an election, which is reflected in the polls. This has not been the case in Ireland in the wake of the last two general elections. Today’s poll results are a mirror image of the drop in FF support that occurred after the 2002 vote. In the run up to that election, and the one this summer, Fianna Fáil smeared the opposition and bribed the voters with their own money. Once elected, they abandoned their promises and returned to the arrogant disregard that they display for the first 4 years of every electoral cycle (they tend to dial that down in the fifth year and people fall for it every time).
My frustration lies in the fact that in five years time, people may very well have forgotten that this happens every time, and might once again opt to return FF for a fourth term. But maybe there’s a chink of light in all of this. Unlike previous similar polls, Fine Gael are starting from a much higher base and are now within the margin of error of Fianna Fáil’s rating. Add to this the fact that Bertie Ahern’s popularity is finally starting to wane and a number of new variables enter the system.
At the present levels of support, there is no reason to believe that Fine Gael will not overhaul the handful of seats that separate them from FF at council level. FF must realise that, and such a scenario would set Fine Gael well on track for further Dáil gains next time out. There is also the curious situation that Ahern’s anointed successor is now more popular than his leader. Perhaps the jitters might start to hit the grey men on FF’s backbenches, and might cause Bertie’s departure before the 2009 locals.
And finally – what of the Progressive Democrats? Their leader’s rating didn’t even feature in the television reports last night. As a distinct party. they’ve only hit the media once in recent weeks, thanks to Fiona O’Malley’s comments on the ministerial pay rises. And even when there are reports of internal government discussions on issues like civil unions (a subject that was a core PD aim in a previous life), the focus is entirely on the Greens and FF. It seems that their slide to oblivion is continuing in a slow, quiet and inevitable way, and perhaps their 2% showing might be their last post.
November 2, 2007 at 12:08 pm
Frankly I think part of the reason that FG has consistently failed to win elections is in the attitude that people ‘forget’ at each electoral cycle. The reality is that people do remember what happened, and that they understand that FF has a reputation for more severe corruption than other parties. However, Fianna Fail continue to be the party with the most effective whip, the best vote management and more.
Electoral reality presents a grim national picture for FG. By the time of the next election, Brian Cowan will likely be leading a refreshed and rejuvenated Fianna Fail parliamentary party. Cowan is enormously personally popular. and has the consistency to shed a great deal of the remaining gray clouds of the Haughey years.
November 2, 2007 at 12:15 pm
Historically I think you’re on to something. But FG have a pretty young and ambitious PP this time round, soI think there’ll be less grumbling about how FF manage to slip our grasp, and more of a focus on taking the fight to them.
November 2, 2007 at 6:00 pm
It’s a case of two moving targets. The ever-growing trouble of FG will be that they are further and further from any experience in power. This gives them a clean slate in terms of being Noonan’d, it leaves a similarly large gap.
I don’t see youth as a tremendous electoral advantage, particularly if the party fails to shed its ‘young fogey’ image.
I think that the key signal that there is indeed a new type of fight coming would be to see new levels of discipline and cohesiveness in FG. I would like to see the rainbow image jettisoned, and a more obvious willingness to dominate before I thought they had a chance.